Stephen Koukoulas

Recent Posts

Quick Guide: Business Expectations, June Quarter 2019 Interim Results

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Mar 14, 2019 2:38:29 PM

Businesses remain upbeat about the economic outlook, with the business expectations at a 15 year high. While the results are somewhat at odds with the more cautious – and even problematic outlook in the economy more broadly – expectations are over 10 per cent above the level of a year earlier. 

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Topics: Australian Business Expectations, Australian Economy

Quick Guide: Business Expectations, June Quarter 2019 Preliminary Results

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Feb 5, 2019 9:20:08 AM

The illion Business Expectations Index has improved significantly over the first month of 2019, representing a major turnaround following last quarter’s bleak outlook.

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Topics: Australian Business Expectations, Australian Economy

Quick Guide: Business Expectations, March Quarter 2019 Interim Results

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Dec 4, 2018 1:13:37 PM

The latest illion business expectations survey has confirmed a cooling in the economic outlook. The composite expectations index fell to its weakest level since the December quarter 2017, while the actual index dipped to its lowest level since the September quarter 2017.

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Topics: Australian Business Expectations, Australian Economy, Capital Investment

The Australian Economy: Is the Writing On the Wall at the Fork in the Road?

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Nov 23, 2018 1:10:56 PM

The Australian economy is set to enter 2019 at a crossroads – one path is for continued success, and a 28th year with no recession, the other, leads to a downturn that will be driven by falls in household wealth as residential housing prices drop.

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Topics: Australian Economy, Economic Forecast, Business

Quick Guide: Business Expectations, March Quarter 2019 Preliminary Results

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Nov 7, 2018 3:43:22 PM


The illion business expectations survey retained a positive outlook for the March quarter. With business expectations rising 4.5% annually to 23.2 points, while actual performance increased 5.3% to 16.6 points. Both measures remain firm.

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Topics: Australian Business Expectations, Australian Economy, Consumer Confidence

Quick Guide: Business Expectations, December Quarter 2018 Interim Results

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Sep 11, 2018 8:25:00 AM

Business expectations remain solidly positive, with all components of the survey increasing in illion’s most recent analysis. The interim business expectations index for the December quarter rose to a 15-year high, driven by the recent run of favourable economic news on employment, an upturn in retail spending and on-going record low interest rates.

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Topics: Australian Business Expectations, Australian Economy, Capital Investment

Quick Guide: Business Expectations, December Quarter 2018 Preliminary Results

Posted by Stephen Koukoulas on Aug 7, 2018 11:14:12 AM

The illion business expectations survey painted a picture of solid expansion in the economy into the second half of 2018. Equally important is business reporting actual activity, which was also positive in the June quarter, suggesting the official GDP data for that period will register solid growth. Those GDP data are scheduled for release in early September.

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Topics: Australian Business Expectations, Retail, Interest Rates